The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, headed by former Reserve Bank Governor C Rangarajan, had said that it was unlikely that the GDP growth rate would be lower than 6.25 per cent for the current fiscal; buy might reach 6.75 per cent despite the adverse impact of monsoon on farm sector output.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
IMF projected India's economic growth at 4.25% in 2013-14.
Brokerage firm Ambit Capital has cut FY17 growth estimate to 3.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent and saaid there was even a possibility of growth contracting during the December quarter
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
July and August are expected to receive 107 per cent and 104 per cent of rainfall
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday slashed India's growth projection to 9.6 per cent for the 2021 calendar year, from its earlier estimate of 13.9 per cent, and said faster vaccination progress will be paramount in restricting economic losses to June quarter.
The RBI has cut key rates to boost the economy.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
'India has benefited from lower oil prices and remains the fastest-growing large economy in the world.'
In its macroeconomic review report, the RBI has cut FY13 GDP growth forecast to 5.7% vs 6.5%.
The Indian economy is reviving, helped by positive policy actions.
With all-round upturn in economic cycle except in agriculture, Economic think tank NCAER has forecast India's GDP growth rate at 6.5 to 6.7 per cent for this fiscal.
Government has forecast annual economic growth to rise to 7.4%.
'The numbers are null and void now. Look, we can give out projections now, but we know that a week later those numbers will also be irrelevant. So we need to wait,' a top government official said.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
But lower growth numbers in the quarters to come may not mean renewed weakness in the economy at the ground level, says Pranjul Bhandari.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday kept India's economic growth forecast in the fiscal year to March 2022 unchanged at 9.5 per cent but raised its predictions for the subsequent year on broadening out of the recovery. The Indian economy had shrunk by 7.3 per cent in 2020-21 fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021) as pandemic induced restrictions battered business activity. The gradual lifting of the restrictions has helped the economy to rebound from pandemic lows.
The government's second round of stimulus will spur consumer spending in the near term but support to economic growth will be minimal, Moody's Investors Service said.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
NCAER on Wednesday forecast a higher 8.13 per cent growth for 2003-04, but warned that fiscal deficit would shoot up to 6.1 per cent of GDP due to increased government expenditure and surging inflation.
N R Bhanumurthy, professor of economics at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, and the author of the series, presented in a report to the National Statistical Commission, explains to Abhishek Waghmare various aspects of the methodology.
The April-June quarter GDP slipped to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent.
This is lower than the country's growth rate of 6.7 per cent for the financial year 2008-09.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
FY17 GDP growth faces cash crunch heat
Recent estimates show that foodgrain production in 2016-17 has touched a new record of 273.4 million tonnes or 8.7 per cent higher as compared to last year.
Agriculture and allied activities are likely to grow at 5.4 per cent in 2010-11, compared to just 0.4 per cent in 2009-10, according to Advance Estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation on Monday.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said it has revised the outlook on India's sovereign rating to 'stable' from 'negative' as downside risks to medium-term growth have diminished on rapid economic recovery. Fitch Ratings kept the rating unchanged at 'BBB-'.
Enthused by a good monsoon, the government on Wednesday said the economy would grow by over 6.0 per cent and could even log near 8.0 per cent growth
Advance estimates of national income growth released today by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) project it at 7.2 per cent in 2009-10, pegging it a notch below earlier forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India (7.5 per cent) and finance ministry (7.75 per cent). With economic growth back on track the government may initiate a phased withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus package.
December's figure was the seventh successive quarter of economic growth below 5 per cent.
If El Nino condition affects the monsoons, as is being forecast by foreign agencies, it can slow down the economy to 5.2 per cent next fiscal from a projected 6 per cent.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
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Prime Minister's key economic advisor C Rangarajan on Friday lowered the growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent projected earlier and listed out host of measures, including further liberalisation of FDI norms to improve economic condition.
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
RBI has retained the GDP forecast at 8.5 per cent for 2007-08; inflation kept close to 5 per cent this year.
